Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem
Mark Poker Articles, Poker Rules
Getting dealt pocket Aces
This is an article about one of the best or worst (depending on the point of view) situations in poker, namely the AA vs KK hand including odds and probabilities for AA vs KK.
Every poker player loves to look down on their hole cards and see a pair of aces staring back at them. It really is a beautiful site, albeit a rather rare one that will only happen, on average, once in every 221 hands dealt but when they do find their way to your hand it is a joyous occasion as you hold the best starting hand in Texas Hold’em.
One of the problems with aces, whether using the Betfair Poker code or not, is that they do not come around very often and when they do you often find yourself winning a relatively small pot with them. However, one occasion when you will be an odds on favorite to win a substantial pot is when one of your opponents has been dealt a pair of kings, the classic AA vs KK confrontation!
Odds and probability of AA vs KK happening
Pocket jacks is known as a big danger hand in Texas Hold’em. It may look good, but the chances of a higher card turning up on the flop is 52%, giving your ‘fish-hooks’ less than half a chance of survival. In No Limit Hold'em, a player has about a 2% chance of having quads by the river while they hold a pocket pair. In No Limit Hold'em, a player has about a 0.001% chance of flopping quads without a pocket pair. Quads are beaten by just three types of hands: 1.In most bad beat jackpots at casinos around the country, the qualifying losing hand must usually be Quad 8s or better. Let's start with some rather simple but quite important odds: being dealt aces. There are 1,326 different hole-card combinations in Texas Hold'em poker and 6 of them are aces. Thus the odds of being dealt aces in any hand are 6 to 1,320 or 1 to 221 (or 0.45%). You probably already knew that.
The odds of being dealt any specific pocket pair, such as aces, is 220-to-1 but the odds of being dealt a pair of aces and then someone at the same table being dealt pocket kings is slightly less as the two aces have been removed from the 52-card deck. This means that the odds of someone being dealt a pair of kings when you have aces is 205-to-1. However, that only applies when you are heads-up against a single player, against a full table with nine other opponents you will find yourself in an AA vs KK situation once in every 20 times you are dealt aces.
The reason having aces against kings is usually so profitable is that the player with kings rarely worries about his opponent having a higher pair as it will only happen to them around 4.4% of the time they hold kings so will generally be willing to commit their entire stack. The problem is that when they do put their chips into the middle they will be doing so with very little equity, in fact they will be around an 82% underdog in the hand.
Winning with AA vs KK
Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem Games
Betfair poker pundits note how being dominated by a higher pair is disastrous for the lower pair as they almost always have to hit a set (one of their two remaining cards) in order to win. Sometimes the lower pair can hit an unlikely straight or flush to prevail against the higher pair but this is very rare, even more so in the case of AA vs KK as the kings are ranked so closely aces. Indeed, sharing the same suits lessens the chances of a win for the kings, for example a pair of black aces against a pair of black kings will see the former win 82.64% of the time but black aces “only” win red kings 81.26% of the time, which although a minor difference can be quite large over a significant sample size.
Famous AA vs KK confrontations
Although we have already ascertained that AA vs KK confrontations do not happen as often as we would like to believe, when they do occur they are usually high profile as the pots are more significant and if the aces lose a big deal is made due to them being an overwhelming favourite. The biggest hand of this type in recent times was at the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event final table, which Joe Cada eventually won. In the hand Kevin Schaffel raised from middle position to 1,250,000 holding AhAc, Steve Begleiter called in the cutoff but Eric Buchman, on the button, looked down at KhKc and made it 5,750,000 to play.
With the action back on Schaffel, he moved all-in for 17,200,000 chips in total, forcing Begleiter out of the pot but Buchman quickly called. As Schaffel’s aces were of the same suit as Buchman’s kings he was an 82.64% favourite but that all changed when the flop came down Qs-Jh-Ks, giving Buchman a set! Shaffel still had around a 21% chance to win as he could have hit a ten for a straight or an ace for a higher set but the Kd fell on the turn, giving his opponent quad kings and the hand. The meaningless 9c arrive on the turn and Schaffel was eliminated in eighth place, worth $1,300,231.
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Want to find out the probabilities of being dealt an ace before the flop in Texas Hold'em? Use the tables below to help you find the different aces odds based on the situation and the number of players at the table.
Aces probabilities odds charts.
| # Players | % Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 18% |
| 3 | 40% |
| 4 | 50% |
| 5 | 59% |
| 6 | 66% |
| 7 | 73% |
| 8 | 78% |
| 9 | 83% |
| # Players | % Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 12% |
| 3 | 23% |
| 4 | 32% |
| 5 | 41% |
| 6 | 50% |
| 7 | 57% |
| 8 | 64% |
| 9 | 69% |
| # Players | % Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 16% |
| 3 | 29% |
| 4 | 41% |
| 5 | 51% |
| 6 | 60% |
| 7 | 68% |
| 8 | 74% |
| 9 | 80% |
Probability of being dealt an ace in any Texas Hold'em game is 15%.
How to use aces odds.
These tables are not going to be of much use to you whilst you play, but it is useful information on the probabilities of hands with aces turning up at your table.
The most useful information from these aces odds tables is that the likelihood of a player being dealt an ace increases with the number of players at the table.
The likelihood of another player holding an ace if you hold an ace yourself table (top right) is interesting. There is a fairly high probability that another player at a 9-seater table holds an ace if you do as well. This means that we should be cautious when dealt weak aces and should fold them in early position. There is a chance that we were the only player at the table holding an ace, but we are saving ourselves more money in the long run for when we come up against another player with a better ace than ours.
Playing aces in Texas Hold'em.
An ace is the highest ranking card in Texas Hold'em and can be played either high or low. This means that if you are dealt an ace preflop, there is a fair chance that you hold one of the strongest hands at the table. If you are all-in with an opponent and they do not have a pocket pair or a better ace, you are the favorite to win the hand.
Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem Golf
However, you should be careful to not become overly attached to the hand when you are dealt an Ace, because there is a fair chance that you will lose a sizeable proportion of your stack if you get into a hand with another player that holds a better ace than you (e.g. A9 vs AQ).
Be careful to not overvalue hands with aces, as they can get you in to a lot of trouble if you do not have a good kicker.
Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem Poker
For strategy guides on how to play hands with aces, take a look at the rag aces and pocket aces articles.
Go back to the poker odds charts.
Odds Of Quad Aces In Texas Holdem Game
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